Where We’re At Now in the COVID-19 Pandemic Follow-Up

As many of you are aware, we were lucky enough to have Dr. Carol Griggs speak at our DEM All-Team Meeting on March 2nd. We recorded the session for folks who may be interested in going back and watching again. The recording can be found in this Box folder. In addition to the recording, we also pulled together some facts from her presentation for reference. Special thanks to Ozzyie Chen for his efforts on this!

General things to know

  • From birth to 12 years old, the body is amazing at learning and dealing with all viruses it encounters.
  • After 12 years of age,
    • the body is very limited in dealing with new viruses, and
    • exposure to a new virus often means getting sick.
  • Vaccines train your body to recognize and fight new viruses.

How did we end up in a pandemic?

When the pandemic began in 2020, humans had no natural (learned) response to SARS-CoV-2 virus. No one knew how bad it would be, so we shut down operations and isolated ourselves. The US used procedures and tools to fend off sharp rises in cases, such as:
  • Isolation
  • Mask wearing
  • and… unintentionally fear, because the US didn’t educate the public
Why didn’t we educate?
  • Uncertainty – no one really knew enough
  • If the best educated guess was wrong, it would undermine future messages

Pandemic Phases

Phase 1 (2020, pathogen with no vaccine)
  • Try to eradicate the disease (almost never works but would buy time for vaccine development)
  • Without vaccine, isolation was our only tool
  • No predictions were made – many unknowns
  • All effort went into making a vaccine
Note: technologically we jumped decades in 6 months Phase 2 (Jan 2021, vaccine generally available)
  • Minimal education done, as people didn’t know much
  • People got excited and stopped wearing masks that summer
Phase 3 (August 2021, Delta)
  • Masks back on
  • Estimated around 50% people were protected (via vaccine)
Note: At this point, prior infection is not protection. It takes multiple infections and/or vaccinations (typically living in an environment with the virus for 16-24 months) to train 12+ year old bodies.   Hindsight: should have educated that vaccines protect against secondary infection, NOT against primary infection.   i.e.: you’ll still get Covid if exposed, but you’ll fight it off well (less severe, avoid hospitalization) Phase 4 – today (16-24 months in)
  • At this time, being vaccinated AND prior infection both provide protection against severe illness.
  • Between prior infections and vaccinations, an estimated 90% of the US is protected (99% in Dane County, WI). 
  • Mask mandates are being lifted across the nation.
Note: Prior infection includes being exposed and asymptomatic. Etiquette: if you enter a space where someone else is wearing a mask, ask if they would like you to wear a mask to help those nervous, but from epidemiologist view not needed.

Future expectations – no longer a pandemic and these things will be okay…

  • Mask mandates will be lifted across the US.
  • Quarantine will go away.
  • COVID will never be eradicated (virus will continue to mutate, like the flu).
  • COVID hospitalization rates will vary, but the virus will be less of an issue with innate protection with vaccines and prior infections.   (common, but not severe).
  • Having COVID will not require isolation, instead you’ll see your healthcare provider. 
  • COVID vaccines will be like the flu shot, which trains your body (B cells) against new strains.
  • Wearing a mask has been and is recommended in situations like flying.
  • Feel free to continue to mask wearing. One-way masking is effective for those who are immunocompromised and at higher risk for the virus.

The more you know

  • Both PCR and Antigen tests are good, but they do different things.
    • PCR tests tell you have Covid (infectious or not)
    • Antigen tests tell you if you are infectious
  • SO… if the antigen test is negative (not infectious), but PCR test is positive (have Covid), it could be either the
    • beginning of Covid (you will become infectious in a few days)
    • end of Covid (you will be clear in a few days).
  • Much more likely to get Covid from your kids than you give it to them!  And that is okay, think flu.
  • Kids and masks are a complicated topic.  No advice given here, except kids should wear masks in high-risk situations.
  • Being vaccinated means less likely to have long Covid and faster recovery time.
  • It is unfortunate that we named it “Long Covid.” If we followed wording from other viruses, we would say: “You still have symptoms of Covid 19.”
  • Cloth masks are generally less effective. Surgical masks are more and N95, KN95 masks are most effective. 
  • Kids’ bodies are getting better at handling viruses due to exposure.
  • Vaccinations for kids are recommended.